Chemi Shalev predicts coalition scenarios
Based on current polling and political alliances, Chemi Shalev has put together an extremely thorough list of coalitions that could emerge from March elections. Quoting Shalev:
A Right-wing/nationalist/religious government: (Likud + Jewish Home + Ultra-Orthodox + Kahlon + Lieberman: 70-75 MK’s by current polls.) Prime Minister: Netanyahu. Possible Defense Minister: Naftali Bennett.
Leftist/centrist/ religious government: (Labor + Ultra-Orthodox+ Kahlon + Lieberman + possible Lapid + possible Meretz + possible external support from Arab parties: 60-70 MK’s, excluding Arabs, based on current polls) Prime Minister: Isaac Herzog (at least for first two years). Other top portfolios could go to Lieberman/Kahlon/Lapid for making it all possible.
Center/left/right National Unity Government: with rotating Labor/Likud prime ministership and possibly even a three-way carousel with the representative of a centrist bloc also getting his turn.
And now for something completely different: Same as above but with the new so-called center (Lapid+Lieberman+Kahlon) creating a single parliamentary bloc, going for broke and insisting on its own prime minister, in rotation or even on its own.
Bennett, Bennett, Bennett: One cannot fully discount the possibility that even the modest support that Likud has in the polls these days will collapse, with much of it moving in Bennett’s direction... Expect Bennett to back Netanyahu for PM but to extract a steep price in terms of government portfolios and positions.
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