Israeli Elections: Who Will Win? (The Numbers, Take 1)
Based on current poll numbers, Natan Sachs looks at three broad coalition scenarios, concluding that the race is Netanyahu's to lose:
- Left coalition? This scenario looks difficult without the left picking up more seats. Right now, it's a bit of a logic puzzle: Meretz and Israel Beiteinu will not join a coalition with each other, nor would the orthodox parties join a coalition with Yesh Atid. If Herzog were able to convince the latter two to do so, policy issues would inevitably arise that would tear the coalition apart. The government would likely be short-lived.
- A far-right coalition: Unless things change, Netanyahu has the best chance of forming a government, which would likely include Jewish Home, Kulanu, Israel Beiteinu and the orthodox parties. The question is whether the heads of these parties get past the 'anyone but Netanyahu' sentient that currently prevails.
- A unity government: Should the Zionist Camp and Netanyahu join forces, they'd start with 50 seats, and likely have the support or Kulanu, Israeli Beitenu and the orthodox parties. But the antipathy between members of each party toward the other could create mutinies which would make it impossible to seal the deal.
Read the full analysis at Brookings